This story first appeared in South Asia Monitor

Interestingly, strategies employed during the Covid pandemic are being replicated. Much like the Cowin app was used to track and monitor Covid vaccinations, the Indian government plans an app to monitor every eligible child to ensure that they are up to date with their vaccination schedules

The horrific Covid-19 pandemic, which effectively wiped out millions of people and 30 months of normal activity and development, appears to be receding in India even as the world looks on warily at reports of the virus mutating, again, to devastating consequences in China. Though India has returned to some normalcy, having contended with the coronavirus through a largely successful nationwide vaccination effort, it now finds itself confronting an alarming threat from the collapse of other basic health parameters.

The Covid pandemic primarily afflicted the older and above-infant level segment of the population, disrupting routine immunization schedules of those newly-born, leaving them prey to deadly diseases like measles, which has made an unwelcome resurgence across the globe and hit India hard.

Health workers across India are scrambling to contain the outbreak of measles among the population aged under five, for whom the disease, typically accompanied by a fever, cough and a distinctive maculo-papular rash, can be fatal. Over 25,000 cases of measles and 1,965 cases of Rubella, a related, more virulent form of viral disease, have been reported in 2022. The worst-hit states have been Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra, but even states like Kerala, widely seen as the best-performing state on vital health parameters, including maternal and child immunizations, have seen localised outbreaks of the highly contagious disease.

Measles, a viral disease that afflicts children and has no cure, can be totally prevented through routine immunization. However, the Covid pandemic threw the regular immunization schedules awry in 2020 and 2021, leading to a resurgence of the disease.

Realising the depth of damage that measles can cause among those below five and the ease with which it can be prevented, the Indian government has targeted the end of 2023 to eliminate measles. Like polio and tetanus, measles will be eradicated, health authorities have pledged, by this time next year.

Measles, a completely preventable disease with just two shots of the vaccine providing lifelong immunity, had been largely brought under control in India, which has among the world’s largest public health immunization programmes. However, the programme stumbled and fell behind in vaccinating infants when the primary focus of the nation’s health administration shifted to containing Covid.

Vaccination delays

The severity and longevity of the Covid pandemic caught the country’s health authorities off-guard, allowing measles, also a highly contagious virus, to enter and catch the infant population in congested areas, including in the financial capital Mumbai, in a deadly grip. At least 43 children have died, 13 of them in Maharashtra, in the current measles outbreak.

While measles is easily preventable through routine MR (measles and rubella) vaccinations, a 95 per cent coverage rate is needed to halt community spread. In India, An estimated 25 million infants are estimated to have missed their first dose in the past two years. Only Nigeria has reported more children left out of immunization coverage.

According to the health authorities, the outbreaks reported from around 143 worst-hit areas across India have been because of delays in regular vaccination schedules and the migration of large numbers of people because of Covid lockdowns.

The measles outbreak was worst in areas that used to be polio-endemic. Indian health authorities, therefore, appear confident they would be able to tackle, overcome and eradicate measles completely.

Learning from Covid

Interestingly, strategies employed during the Covid pandemic are being replicated. Much like the Cowin app was used to track and monitor Covid vaccinations, the Indian government plans an app to monitor every eligible child to ensure that they are up to date with their vaccination schedules.

As with Covid, religious community leaders are being roped in to urge their communities to get children vaccinated. Because of the success of the Covid vaccination programme, health authorities believe there is less vaccine hesitancy now and far greater acceptance, even among those afflicted, surrounding the efficacy of vaccinations.

Calling measles a “tracer” of the strength of a country’s immunization system, Unicef’s Dr Ashish Chauhan said, “When immunization coverage is low, measles is the fastest vaccine-preventable disease to return.” Dr Veena Dhawan, Additional Commissioner (Immunization) in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) admitted, “States have launched catch-up campaigns to prevent a backslide on routine immunization coverages.”

It is a sad reflection of the fragility of India’s already challenged health system that the decline in primary vaccine coverage, weakened vaccination surveillance systems, and continued interruptions and delays in immunization schedules due to COVID-19, have caused this resurgence of a very preventable disease.

While precious lives have been lost, this need not, and must not, recur, particularly if India wishes to showcase itself as a developed country in the year it hosts the G-20. Merely papering over slum clusters will not cover the flaws.

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This story first appeared in India News Stream

While cases of Covid-19 appear to be receding in India, in the aftermath of a widely successful nationwide vaccination campaign, the threat from that virus continues even as devastating effects of two and a half years of the coronavirus pandemic on other basic health parameters have surfaced.

The Covid pandemic primarily afflicted the older and above-infant level segment of the population, disrupting routine immunization schedules of those newly-born, leaving them prey to deadly diseases like Measles, which has made an unwelcome resurgence across the globe and hit India hard.

Measles, a viral disease that afflicts children and has no cure, can be totally prevented through routine immunization. However, the Covid pandemic threw the regular immunization schedules awry in 2020 and 2021, leading to a resurgence of the disease. Having realised the depth of damage the disease can cause among the under-five year old population, and the ease with which it can be prevented, the government has set a target to eliminate measles by the end of 2023. Like polio and tetanus, measles will be eradicated, health authorities have pledged, by this time next year.

Health workers across India are scrambling to contain the outbreak of Measles among the population aged under-five, for whom the disease, typically accompanied by a fever, cough and a distinctive maculo-papular rash, can be fatal. Over 25,000 cases of measles and 1,965 cases of Rubella, a related, more virulent form of viral disease, have been reported in 2022. The worst-hit states have been Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra, but even states like Kerala, widely seen as the best performing state on vital health parameters, including maternal and child immunizations, have seen localised outbreaks of the highly contagious disease.

Measles, a very preventable disease with just two shots of the vaccine providing lifelong immunity, had been largely brought under control in India, which has among the world’s largest public health immunization programmes. However, the programme stumbled and fell behind in its schedule of vaccinating infants when the primary focus of the nation’s health administration shifted to containing Covid.

The severity and longevity of the Covid pandemic caught the country’s health authorities off-guard, allowing Measles, another highly contagious virus, to enter and, this time, catch the infant population in congested areas, including in the financial capital Mumbai, in a deadly grip. At least 40 children have died, 13 of them in Maharashtra, in the current measles outbreak.

While Measles is easily preventable through the routine MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccinations, a 95% coverage rate is needed to halt community spread. The outbreaks reported from around 143 worst hit areas across India have been because of delays in regular vaccination schedules and the migration of large numbers of people because of Covid lockdowns.

In India, 25 million infants are estimated to have missed their first dose. Only Nigeria reported more children left out of immunization coverage.

Dr Veena Dhawan, Additional Commissioner (Immunization) in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) said, “States have launched catch-up campaigns to prevent a backslide on routine immunization coverages.” Speaking at a Media Workshop organised in Mumbai by Unicef and the MoHFW to raise awareness of the vital importance of routine immunizations she said, “Measles is one of the most contagious human viruses, but is almost entirely preventable through vaccination.”

Dr Meeta, a Surveillance Medical Officer with WHO, said the measles outbreak was worst in areas that used to be polio endemic. The health authorities now appear confident they would be able to tackle, overcome and eradicate measles completely. Strategies employed during the Covid pandemic are being replicated, with religious community leaders also being roped in to urge their communities to get their children vaccinated. Because of the success of the Covid vaccination programme, there is now far greater acceptance among those afflicted surrounding the efficacy of vaccinations.

Calling Measles a “tracer” of the strength of a country’s immunization system, Unicef’s Dr Ashish Chauhan said, “When immunization coverage is low, measles is the fastest vaccine preventable disease to return.”

It is a sad reflection of the vulnerability of the economically challenged segments of society that the decline in vaccine coverage, weakened measles surveillance system, and continued interruptions and delays in immunization schedules because of COVID-19 caused this resurgence of an eminently preventable disease. Globally, and not just in India. While precious lives have been lost, this need not, and must not, recur.

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This story first appeared in Outlook Hindi

पिछले कुछ साल में महामारी ने हम सब के जीवन को बदल दिया है। हमारी दुनिया एक विशाल मुर्दा घरों में तब्दील हो गई थी । शायद ये नया साल हमारे जीवन को भय, दुख, अमानवीयता और बीमारी के निष्ठुर हमले से बचा ले। हमें उन अंधेरों से निकल लें।

कोराना से हम सब ने एक हद तक निपट लिया है। पर हमारे बच्चे खसरा जैसे बीमारी की चपेट में आ गए हैं। दुनिया में फिर से खसरा जैसी बीमारी ने धावा बोला है। आज फिर दुनिया के बच्चों की जिन्दगी खतरे में है।

कोविड 19 के कारण दुनिया में जो हालत हुए उससे टीकाकरण अभियान पर गहरा असर पड़ा। दुनिया की सरकारों ने बच्चों के भविष्य को नजरंदाज किया। आंकड़े कहते हैं दुनिया भर में खसरा बीमारी का खतरा बढ़ गया है।

डब्ल्यूएचओ और सीडीसी की एक रिपोर्ट के अनुसार 2021 में दुनिया भर में लगभग 90 लाख खसरे के संक्रमण के मामले सामने आए और इस दौरान 128,000 मौतें हुईं। डब्लूएचओ और सीडीसी ने कहा कि 20 से अधिक देशों में चल रहे प्रकोप के अलावा, टीकाकरण में लगातार गिरावट, निगरानी की कमी और कोविड-19 के कारण टीकारण में देरी ने दुनिया के हर क्षेत्र में खसरा बीमारी का फैलाव बढ़ गया।

क्या इन मौत की जिम्मेदारी किसी की बनती है? ये अभियान क्यों रुका क्या इसका आंकलन सरकार को करना चाहिए? क्या बच्चों के लिए इस जरूरी कदम को जारी रखना सरकार की प्राथमिकता होनी चाहिए थी ? अगर सरकार गंभीर रहती तो दुनिया के 4 करोड़ बच्चे खसरे के टीके से वंचित नहीं होते। आंकड़े इस बात के गवाह हैं कि टीकाकरण के मामले में कितनी चूक हुई।

डब्लूएचओ और सीडीसी की रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक, 2021 में दुनियाभर में लगभग 4 करोड़ बच्चे खसरे के टीके की खुराक नहीं ले सके। 2 करोड 50 लाख बच्चों ने अपनी पहली खुराक ही नहीं ली, जबकि 1 करोड़ 47 लाख बच्चों ने अपनी दूसरी खुराक मिस कर दी। इसका परिणाम ये हुआ है कि 22 देशों ने बड़े और भयंकर प्रकोप का सामना किया।

भारत जैसे देश में इस बीमारी का फिर लौटना हमारे बच्चों को गहरे खाई में धकेलना है। जो देश भूख, कुपोषण, गरीबी और अशिक्षा से जूझ रहा हो उस देश के बच्चों का स्वास्थ्य किसकी चिंता होगी? 

स्वास्थ्य मामलों के जानकार डॉक्टर ए.के गौड़ बताते हैं कि खसरा ज्यादातर सीधे संपर्क या हवा से फैलता है। खसरा होने पर बुखार, मांसपेशियों में दर्द और चेहरे और ऊपरी गर्दन पर त्वचा पर दाने जैसे लक्षण होते हैं। अधिकांश खसरे से संबंधित मौतें मस्तिष्क की सूजन और निर्जलीकरण सहित जटिलताओं के कारण होती हैं।

विश्व स्वास्थ्य संगठन का कहना है कि पांच वर्ष से कम उम्र के बच्चों और 30 वर्ष से अधिक उम्र के वयस्कों में गंभीर जटिलताएं सबसे गंभीर हैं। खसरे से होने वाली 95% से अधिक मौतें विकासशील देशों में होती हैं, इनमें ज्यादातर अफ्रीका और एशिया प्रमुख हैं। पहले , खसरे का प्रकोप हर दो से तीन साल में होता था और दुनिया भर में हर साल 26 लाख लोगों की मौत होती थी।

हाल में ही यूनिसेफ ने इस मुद्दे पर गंभीर चिंता व्यक्त की है। यूनिसेफ की चिंता में आम लोगों का टीकाकरण पर घटता विश्वास है। उनका मानना है टीका के प्रति लोगों में फिर से विश्वास लाना होगा। उन्हें ये भरोसा देना होगा की इस बीमारी का एक मात्र इलाज टीका ही है। एमआर या एमएमआर का टीका लगाने का अभियान को और तेज करना होगा। ये इसलिए भी जरूरी है कि हम अपनी नस्लों को इस बीमारी से बचा सकें। आंकड़े बताते हैं कि देश के कई राज्यों में खसरा से बच्चों की मौत हुई है। महाराष्ट्र में खसरे के मामलों में लगातार बढ़ोतरी हो रही है। हम जानते हैं कोरोना महामारी के दौरान दुनिया भर में कई चीजें रुक गई थीं। जिससे बच्चों की जिन्दगी खतरे में पड़ गई है। 

कई देश जो खसरा को खत्म करने के करीब थे अब वहां इसका बड़ा प्रकोप देखा जा रहा है. 2016 के मुकाबले 2017 में खसरा का केस दुनिया के लगभग हर क्षेत्र में 30% बढ़े और 2022 आते आते इसमें और इजाफा हो गया। तो फिर इससे मुकाबला का और क्या रास्ता है। डॉक्टर कहते हैं टीकाकरण ही वो रास्ता है जिसके जरिए हम अपने बच्चों को बचा सकते हैं।यदि टीका लगाया गया होता, तो बीमारी को आबादी में फैलने से रोका जा सकता है।

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This story first appeared in The Rising Nepal

In the November 20 elections to the House of Representatives (HoR) and Provincial Assemblies (PA), Nepalis selected a set of old but experienced, together with a completely new and fresh, representatives. The elected parliamentarians and political parties must now get the cue that the voters have given to them. A ruling coalition must now be in place to form a government that can formulate laws and policies based on old experience and new knowledge and skills so as to develop a path of prosperity for the country and its people. For this to happen, the government also needs to be stable for the next five years. Therefore, a power-sharing strategy needs to be the least priority.

Watchdog

In a successful democracy, the role of the opposition party or coalition is as critical as the ruling one. Time has come for Nepal to have a strong opposition that can act as a watchdog over the government and make sure the right and appropriate policies are put in place. During this election, knowingly or unknowingly, a group of youths with different professional and educational backgrounds got together and formed a party as an alternate party to bring about a change in the country just five months before the election. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) came up surprisingly and has succeeded in becoming a national party by winning the required first-past-the-post (FPTP) and proportional representational (PR) seats. As a new national level party, RSP should stay in the opposition and make sure a stable government continues for the next five years to help the country tide over the current state of uncertainty and economic crisis. In the process, it will also help in institutionalising their newly formed political set up.

Nepal has now completed the national and local elections for the second time since it was declared a federal republic. As the winners under both the FTPT and the PR categories have been declared, the formation of the new government is now in the process. A total of 825 people’s representatives were elected. Of them, 275 were elected as members of the House of Representatives (HoR) while 550 as members of the PA. Women’s participation in the HoR stands at 33.10 per cent while 36.36 per cent in the PA.

Prior to the 2022 Nepal elections, politicians went through a rigorous exercise of joining hands with each other, crossing ideologies and parties and bickering with each other. There was an unhealthy political game strategy demonstrated where political parties, with completely opposite value systems formed coalitions. The political leaders who were at each other’s throats worked together in a calculative mode to get election tickets, contest, win and become member of parliaments.

Juxtaposed to the political parties, the voters seem to have foresight of how to help in the progress of the country. They have cast their votes and shown that the Nepali people actually want a combination of old and new faces to govern their country. Although there was a big campaign of #NoNotAgain to oust the senior politicians who had already served as parliamentarians several times, the Nepali citizens elected senior political stalwarts including Sher Bahadur Deuba, Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda, KP Sharma Oli, Prakash Man Singh, among others, who have contributed a lot to the re-establishment of democracy in the country. However, they have been accused of not succeeding in making sure that a government completes its five-year term as mandated by the people.

Now that the HoR and PA election results are out, as per Article 76 (2) of the Constitution of Nepal, 2015, President Bidya Devi Bhandari has called members elected to the HoR to submit the name of the Prime Minister. This process has been initiated since no single party has secured majority in the HoR to form a government on their own. On 17th December, the parties were given 7 days to submit the name of the proposed Prime Minister who can garner support to form a new coalition government. The PM is then required to prove the confidence from the House within 30 days.

High chance

The incumbent Prime Minister Deuba stands a high chance of continuing his premiership. However, this is still uncertain. The time has now come for the politicians to reflect on the results of both the local and national elections. The people have shown in both cases, especially the elections for the HoR and PA, that they want both old and new faces to rule the country with the hope that a change is brought which will help them to move towards prosperity and happiness.

Nepal is a country with a rugged terrain. Being a land-locked country, the need to be dependent on her big neighbours to the north and south is an undisputed reality. The nation has an abundance of natural resources including water, flora, fauna and mountains together with the human resources who never fail to work hard to build their country and lives. The new government must be such which can govern the country for the full term and put sustainable development strategies and foreign policies in place by utilising the country’s human and natural resources. Equally important is that the new faces that have come into politics can form a strong opposition to make sure that it happens.

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This story first appeared in Factum

What prompted the US government to put in place a “Buddhist policy” in Southeast Asia during the Cold War and how successful were these clandestine efforts at using a predominant religion of the region to counter the spread of communism? And did Sri Lanka play a role in shaping the US policy of co-opting Buddhists into an anticommunist program during the Cold War?

These are questions which Eugene Ford, a Yale University historian, raises in his book “Cold War Monks: Buddhism and America’s Secret Strategy in Southeast Asia.” To find the answer, the author has carried out exhaustive research using both US and Thai archival material and has brought to light the little-known aspect of the “Buddhist Policy” adopted by the US which Sri Lanka (then Ceylon) too, most probably unwittingly, played a role in shaping.

In the aftermath of the Second World War, relations between the US and the USSR had turned frosty, and the common front put together to fight Germany and its allies had given way to the Cold War. The two superpowers, having curved out for themselves parts of Europe after the end of the war were eager to ensure that in Asia too their spheres of influence remained strong.

With the influence of communism gaining a foothold in countries in Southeast Asia, the US was hard pressed to come up with a new strategy to keep the influence of the Soviet Union and China at bay. With Buddhism being the dominant religion in several countries in the region, the “Buddhist Policy” was put in place to co-opt Buddhists into an anticommunist program. The program was to be implemented through the Asia Foundation; an organization covertly backed by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

While the Asia Foundation’s role in Thailand, Myanmar (Burma) and several other Southeast Asian countries are the focus of Ford’s book, Sri Lanka, which mooted the idea of a global fellowship of Buddhists in the aftermath of the WWII, seems to have unwittingly, assisted the US strategy with the establishment of the first “truly international” Buddhist organization, the World fellowship of Buddhists (WFB), the origins of which lay in the All-Ceylon Buddhist Congress (ACBC).

In December 1947, at a meeting of the ACBC, a historic resolution was adopted to invite Buddhist representatives from all over the world to a conference in Ceylon in order to prepare for the 2500th anniversary of the birth, enlightenment and death of Lord Buddha. (Buddha Jayanthi). The epochal event was to be commemorated in 1956-57 with simultaneous celebration in all Buddhist countries. The WFB was to be established by 1950 to prepare for the celebrations.

However, two years after the 1947 resolution was adopted, there was little progress and it might have died a natural death “but for the persistence of Dr G. P. Malalasekera, a Pali scholar affiliated with the University of Colombo and a prominent Congress member.”

“In 1949 Dr Malalasekera had visited Honolulu to attend a Conference of Philosophers. His tour of the mainland United States and England after the conference led Dr Malalasekera to view Buddhism as likely to spread in the West. Speaking to the Ceylonese press after his return, in August 1949, he had remarked “Buddhism offers the people of the West a new way of life, which was what they wanted most just now, and Ceylon is admittedly the only country which retains this philosophy in its purest form,” Ford writes.

After his return, the plans for the 1950 conference were revived under Dr Malalasekera’s leadership and invitations sent out to Buddhist majority countries to attend received an overwhelming positive response. The book states that the US Embassy in Colombo noted that the “call to world Buddhists was answered more enthusiastically than was hoped for even by Dr Malalasekera.”

Thus, the first international Buddhist conference convened in Ceylon on May 25, 1950, with an opening religious ceremony at the Dalada Maligawa (the Temple of the Tooth) followed by a reception held at the Colombo Racetrack. Prime Minister D.S. Senanayake was among those who addressed the gathering.

Dr Malalasekera, enthused by the success of the conference, had remarked to a US official sent to report on the event that “this was the biggest thing in the history of Buddhism.” The official reporting back on the event stated: “While the total impression produced by the conference is certainly not one of sinister intentions but rather the contrary, it should be realized that for better or worse, a new politico-religious organization with worldwide connections and a powerful appeal to the masses of Southeast Asia has been born.”

Ford writes that the WFB certainly represented the most significant institutional expression of a new postwar pan-Buddhist solidarity and would thereon provide a regular forum for international Buddhist relations through a series of biennial conferences held in different locations through the Buddhist world- in Colombo, Kathmandu, Rangoon (Yangon) and Phnom Penh among other locales.

Dr Malalasekera was elected the WFB’s first president and in this capacity, he undertook a tour of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia in 1951. While in Vietnam he addressed students and monks at the University of Hanoi on May 27, 1951, where he spoke on decolonization – a topic of obvious concern to Vietnamese listeners still under French rule – to what he discerned as Buddhism’s rising global profile.

“Through its emphasis on Buddhism’s palliative applicability to secure conflicts, the WFB had created openings for divisive secular politics, often with Cold War overtones, to intrude into its conference deliberations,” Ford notes.

A US Embassy memo from Rangoon (Yangon) in July 1951 indicates by that time the US had adopted a policy of active covert engagement with Buddhists in Burma. The timing suggests that Dr Malalasekera’s May 1951 speech in Hanoi may have played a role in precipitating this US decision.

“In the absence of conclusive evidence, we can only speculate on the relationship between the July 1951 proposal and the subsequent beginnings of the new Asia Foundation’s program in Burma. A causal link seems possible but cannot be confirmed,” the book says.

The US Buddhist Policy was to be carried out covertly through the Asia Foundation which came into being in September 1954 replacing the Committee for Free Asia, which had been active in Burma since 1952. It was covertly funded by the CIA and was involved in assisting Burma in the preparations for the celebration for the 2500 Buddha Jayanthi. After launching its Burma (Myanmar) operation, the Foundation set up offices under its new name in each of the mainland Southeast Asian countries and Ceylon.

By January 1957, the Operations Coordinating Board (OCB) which was tasked with creating a general policy framework for Buddhism had prepared a draft on concrete measures to be taken to put the plan into action. By late February the same year, copies of the plan had been distributed within the State Department and the US Embassies in Ceylon, Burma, Thailand Laos and Cambodia.

By then a landmark election held in 1956 in Ceylon had seen the emergence of Buddhist monks as influential actors in politics, a development taken note of by the United States. A CIA representative during a briefing of officials had emphasized that “the religious question had played a significant part in the election in Ceylon.”

Ford states that American officials were well aware that Buddhist principles called for political noninvolvement. Nevertheless, the secret policy… was to employ or leverage Buddhist influence as an anticommunist asset, casting Buddhist in a political role. The effort was recognized as sensitive, so officials repeatedly emphasized the need to conduct these operations discreetly and covertly in respect to their targeting of Buddhist clergy.”

Despite US efforts Southeast countries were soon divided into communist and non-communist states but had not for the “Buddhist Policy”, countries such as Thailand and Burma too may have come under the influence of communism and the complexities of the Cold War may have turned out differently.

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After partnering with Gen Bajwa to become/retain PMship , ImranKhan’s recent complaints against Bajwa ring hollow.

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This story first appeared in The New Indian Express

It’s ironic that in July last year, the Mizoram-Assam border clash saw five Assam policemen slain at the hands of the Mizoram Police. In the wee hours of November 22, a border clash erupted allegedly because Assam forest guards and Assam Police chased a timber-carrying truck into Mukroh, which is well inside Meghalaya and about 9 km from the border outpost in Assam. Timber cutting from inside forests that stretch from one state to the other is a regular phenomenon. Forest guards often facilitate timber smuggling but in this particular case, the Forest guards of Assam decided to give the timber-carrying truck a chase and shot at its tyres.

On hearing the gunshots, the villagers of Mukroh, who grow rice wherever they can clear forests, without any idea which side of the boundary they are on, and who usually live in makeshift huts in the farms during harvesting and planting season, came out with their sticks and machetes which they usually carry to their fields. The Assam forest guards and Assam Police, too, chased the truck right into Mukroh. The Assam Police claim they were gheraoed by villagers who demanded they release the driver and two handypersons they had arrested. A scuffle ensued, and Assam Police shot one Assam forest guard and five villagers from Mukroh.

Meghalaya was busy with the Cherry Blossom Festival and a Literature Festival which drew participants from across the country on its second day when it was unceremoniously called off. As is the norm in Meghalaya, anything happening anywhere in the state has repercussions in Shillong. Tourists packed their bags and left. Those who had planned to arrive here for the host of autumn festivals cancelled their bookings. The pressure groups who looked for every opportunity to put the government on the mat began their agitations. Shillong had just recovered from a bout of violence on the streets when passers-by (non-tribals) were beaten up by a group protesting the lack of employment opportunities in Meghalaya. That was October 28. Then Mukroh happened. The internet was shut down.

Taxis from Meghalaya are not allowed to go beyond Jorabat, the Assam-Meghalaya border. Passengers bound for the railway station and airport in Guwahati have to take an Assam-registered taxi from that point. And why? Because so-called miscreants burnt an Assam-registered vehicle parked in a Shillong locality. Whenever there is tension in Shillong, the non-tribal residents, no matter how long they have settled in Meghalaya, feel vulnerable, for they don’t know when and where they will be attacked. The ‘othering’, encouraged largely by politicians who have run out of issues to fool the electorate, has unfortunately become the modus operandi for fighting elections. And Meghalaya is going to the polls in February 2023.

Mukroh is 127 km from Shillong, a five-hour journey on non-existent roads. Although tribal communities have been believed to be egalitarian, in the last 20 years or so, there have been huge income disparities. A small tribal elite owns most of the land, including those formerly designated as community land. Even community forests are being depleted by the tribal elite. So, while Meghalaya is buffeted by a lot of internal woes, it also has to deal with what is seen as a recalcitrant Assam Police Force guarding the borders.

The problem with demarcating political boundaries is that they don’t lend themselves to social realities. When Meghalaya was carved out of Assam in 1972, the understanding was that all those areas under United Khasi and Jaintia Hills and Garo Hills District would go to Meghalaya. At least that was what The North- Eastern Areas (Reorganisation) Act, 1971 stated. Before that, the Khasis, Jaintias and Karbis were all people of the larger state of Assam and occupied contiguous territories. Boundaries between states of the same countries are soft borders and not hard borders such as those drawn by the British geographer Cyril Radcliffe when East Pakistan was created, and hard boundary lines cut through people’s kitchens and bedrooms.

The seeds of the Assam-Meghalaya border disputes were sown in 1972 when Meghalaya was granted statehood without finalising the boundaries. Both states thought they would abide by The North-Eastern Areas (Reorganisation) Act, 1971 until they realised that the Act did not consider the changed social contours on the ground. At one time, the Khasi-Jaintia tribes of Meghalaya had invited the Karbi people to be part of the statehood movement and to be included in Meghalaya. For some reason, the Karbis backed out and chose to remain with Assam. The two states have had a longstanding dispute in 12 stretches of their 884-km shared border.

In 2011, the Meghalaya government had identified 12 areas of difference with Assam, spread over approximately 2,700 sq km. Some of these disputes stem from recommendations made by a 1951 committee headed by then Assam Chief Minister Gopinath Bordoloi. Interestingly, Assam has meticulously settled people of Nepalese origin in many of these disputed areas. In Pilangkata, several Naga families of Manipur, amongst others, are well-settled. Meghalaya has all but lost Pilangkata.

But the flashpoint between the two states is the district of Langpih in West Garo Hills bordering the Kamrup district of Assam. Langpih was part of the Kamrup district during the British colonial period but post-Independence, it became part of the Garo Hills and Meghalaya.

However, Assam considers it part of the Mikir Hills in Assam. In Meghalaya, the Khasis claim that Langpih should be with West Khasi Hills since its name is Khasi and the bulk of settlers there are Khasis. Meanwhile, Assam has changed the name of Langpih to Lumpi.

Since 1983, six rounds of talks have occurred, with five at the level of the chief secretaries and the latest one in March 2022 between the chief ministers of Assam and Meghalaya. The next and final round of talks was to be held November-end.

Alas! Before the rapprochement could arrive, things soured at the border between West Jaintia Hills District of Meghalaya and West Karbi Anglong District of Assam. Therefore, one wonders how future rounds of talks will happen and who will be the arbiter between the two CMs at this sensitive juncture.

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After ruling Gujarat for 27 years, BJP knows how to shield election outcomes from ground realities such as people’s hardships, leaderless govt and corrupt bureaucracy.

“Kuchh din to gujaro Gujarat mein.”

Amitabh Bachchan had famously sold ‘Khushboo Gujarat Ki’ in an advertisement promoted by the state tourism department. Today, in the poll-bound state, one can find people wishing for both change and consistency. It may seem like a contradictory demand but only until you realise what Khushboo Gujarat Ki entails.

In the ongoing campaign season, the most visible and vocal are leaders of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have held 35 and 30 rallies so far. On Monday alone, Modi addressed four rallies. The BJP is sweating it out to ensure that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) doesn’t cut into its urban votes. On 26 November, some 19 helicopters were parked at the airport of a sleepy town of Bhavangar. Most belonged to BJP leaders, one belonged to Delhi Chief Minister and AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal, and another belonged to Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel.

Most Congress candidates are fighting individual battles, heroically, making the BJP nervous in many crucial seats of Saurashtra and North Gujarat while the AAP is set to open its innings in Gujarat even if it loses badly in terms of seats.

And it’s not just the BJP which has rich candidates. Ahmedabad district’s 21 seats have 15 millionaires in the fray – eight from Congress, five from BJP and two from AAP.

Saurashtra’s 48 seats are witnessing a fascinating dance of democracy when compared to the 2017 Gujarat election. Nine Congress MLAs from the region joined the BJP in the last five years. The 2017 election took place when Hardik Patel led the Patidar quota agitation and the farmers’ discontent was  at its peak.

BJP won only 19 of those 48 seats but it’s claiming to do better this time because it has “managed to improve the economy” of the mandis (Agricultural Produce Market Committee) of Saurashtra with Gondal mandi alone registering a turnover of Rs 23,000 crore this year, claims its board member Alpesh Dholaria. But the not-so-silently fought caste battles are a worry for the candidates.

In Ahmedabad, BJP leaders are talking of a clean sweep–winning 120 seats or more in the 182-member assembly–a possibility only if AAP cuts into Congress’ Muslim and Dalit votes but not into BJP’s urban votes. Without AAP’s help, the BJP can’t sweep the 2022 Gujarat election. If the BJP wins a staggering number of seats, it will be due to its “default position” in the Indian electoral system. But if it gets anything around its 2017 tally of 99 seats, then we should see it as an amazing fact that none is able to defeat BJP, not even the BJP’s own weaknesses.

The reason is clear. The 2022 election will be remembered as a completely caste-driven poll. The issue of Hindu identity is now more online and in the WhatsApp world of voters than offline. This election is not the 2002 election where a surge in “Hindu sentiments” was the dominant factor. Though late but not entirely unexpectedly, Amit Shah has started talking of “punishing the rioters of 2002” and evoking the sentiments of ‘Hindu identity’ in the Muslim-dominated constituencies but the caste fault line remains the biggest challenge for the BJP and Congress.

Congress remains at a disadvantage in this debate because Modi’s strong position in New Delhi and in driving the contemporary national political history and Gujarat’s national importance in contemporary India are “feel good” factors for all Gujarati voters.

A 2017-like fight is missing

Ahead of the first phase of polling on 1 December, a neutral assessment shows the BJP is comfortably placed on 75 of the 182 seats while the Congress is leading in 45 seats as their candidates have credibility and caste suitability. But in the rest of the seats, it’s “kaante ki takkar (cut-throat competition)” with the BJP having higher hopes due to AAP’s presence.

The BJP is concentrating on seats where the victory margin could be 10,000 votes or less with NOTA votes and AAP playing a crucial role. Also, former Congress leaders contesting the election are struggling because of the dent in their loyal caste voter-base even as BJP’s local leaders see them as outsiders.

In many seats, the fight is four-cornered – BJP, Congress, AAP and a strong independent candidate.

However, if the BJP wins Gujarat once more, it will mean that the second generation of Gujarat is ready to lap up the Modi phenomenon that started in 2001, when Modi articulated that ‘development of India’ and ‘Hindu cultural nationalism’ can go hand in hand.

It would mean that the young generation of Gujarat that desires change–visible in new trends of Gujarati literature, films, and theatre–is not looking for a dramatic change.

BJP leaders are totally focused on this evolution within the Gujarati society. Modi and Shah are hammering on about the Congress’ rule of the 1980s. Imagine how profound and powerful the politics of bad memories are.

Also, in urban areas, the issue of caste-identity and arrogance and corruption in the BJP government are not overriding Gujaratis’ desire for political stability and “security of family.” In urban Gujarat, “law and order” issue has a communal undertone. It remains so in this election.

There is no other convincing explanation to understand why, after 27 long years of BJP rule, the Gujarati voters are not tired of the incumbent party. In constituency after constituency, one can find enough of the urban middle-class BJP voters who are unmoved by issues of inflation, corruption in governance, and income inequality. They compare other state governments’ performance, sensex touching the Rs 60,000 mark, Modi’s “clarity in thinking” and a weakened world economy to underplay BJP’s weaknesses.

They continue to back the BJP because the party’s ideology hasn’t weakened for them.

Voters want change but not entirely

One can’t underplay the way BJP’s mammoth machinery and Modi’s strong identification with Gujarati asmita (pride) have been functioning to woo the next generation through this election.

This election campaign shows that whatever be the result, the BJP will remain firmly at the centrepoint in the “future of Gujarat” and its politics because no party or candidate has taken a stand on ideological issues at variance from the BJP.

The weaving of victory by the BJP in the midst of anti-incumbency and a caste-ridden election will have a national fallout.

This election will show how the BJP has mastered its blue book of election campaigning. BJP knows best how to shield election outcomes from getting overshadowed by ground realities such as people’s hardships in health and education, leaderless government and completely corrupt bureaucracy.

Gujarat is at the cusp of change, but it is less political.

If we talk to voters, it can be surmised that they want BJP’s alternative in the state but not of Modi.

More importantly, the alternative must not be drastically different from the BJP. That explains why Modi harshly asked former CM Vijay Rupani and his cabinet to step down overnight. The rude decision, which can backfire too, helped curb anti-incumbency to some extent.

This is the first election where the state’s old BJP leaders look tired and divided along caste lines and still many Congress and AAP voters claim “jitshe to BJP j. (BJP will win, of course).”

The reason is anti-BJP Gujaratis know that for BJP voters, their party is much more than a political outfit. It’s a family.

(Edited by Prashant)

Content retrieved from: https://theprint.in/opinion/in-gujarat-voters-want-bjps-alternative-but-not-of-modi/1241483/.