This story first appeared in gulfnews.com

This is BJP’s most historic and radical experiment with Hindutva politics beyond its base

If the impressive victory in the non-Hindi and culturally rich state of Assam in 2016 was a kind of semi-final for the Bhartiya Janta party (BJP), the assembly election of West Bengal in 2021, is the decisive final for the party. Make no mistake: this is BJP’s most historic and radical experiment with Hindutva politics far beyond the traditional Hindi terrain.

West Bengal is a very important state. It is culturally ultra-sensitive — a place where the pride for Bengali language is of the mythical proportion and part of its core identity. In many ways even the caste and religious identity of Bengalis is subsumed in the larger idea of Bengali asmita.

The assembly election of 2021 in West Bengal is going to be gripping for more than one way. During the upcoming polls, the plank of the Bengali sub-nationalism, represented by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee of Trinamool Congress, will be pitted against the nationalist Hindutva of the BJP, which was originally founded by a Bengali — Shyama Prasad Mukherjee.

It is peculiar that after the BJP’s ascension, the Left parties which ruled West Bengal for more than three decades (1977-2011) uninterruptedly are not even posing any serious challenge to Mamata Banerjee who faces serious level of anti-incumbency in the districts after her rule of two terms. The absence of Congress is not debated, even.

During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got 18 seats and 40.7% vote share while TMC got 43.3% vote share and won 22 seats. The BJP gained on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

It also spoke about the issues of illegal Bangladeshi migrants and while subtly playing the Hindu identity issues. It was a massive win of the BJP as in one stroke it increased its vote share by 22.76%. In 130 assembly segments it took the lead and in 65 assembly seats BJP candidates were a close second.

Since then the BJP is seen as over-ambitious and is working with its all might to win Bengal, Mamata Banerjee, often dubbed as the “woman in a white sari and slippers” is up for a formidable challenge. She is canny, grounded and completely people’s neta. In 2017, her party got 44.91% vote share and 211 seats out of 294 seats of assembly.

Back then BJP had 10.16% vote share and exactly 3 seats. And, now, the BJP leaders in New Delhi are confidently talking about winning 200 seats in the election (scheduled around March-April).

It could be termed as unrealistic mythmaking, but the results of 2019 Lok Sabha election was the “poribartan” (change) that has created the solid ground for the BJP to go the whole-hog to take power from Mamata.

If the BJP is able to do the electorally unthinkable then even the potential of the third-front at the national level will also become weak in 2024 Lok Sabha election.

It is understandable why BJP is pushing so hard to win one of the biggest Indian states with 42 Lok Sabha seats. But, the importance of West Bengal to the BJP is more than those 42 seats. Both Modi and Amit Shah are passionate about West Bengal.

Modi, who deeply idolises Vivekanand, has spent his formative years in Belur Math, near Kolkatta much before he got active in the RSS. On 29, June 2016 Amit Shah as party president had given one of his strongest speeches on Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, founder of Jana Sangh and member of Nehru’s first Cabinet.

Speaking at the Nehru Memorial Museum and Library auditorium he said, “I have no hesitation at all in saying that if Kolkatta is in India today it is because of the efforts of Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, only! West Bengal is in India today due to his efforts.”

Banerjee walking a tight rope

As chief minister, Banerjee is also walking a tight rope due to her actions and inactions in administration. In her first term she tried to appease the minority community but after 2019 Lok Sabha setback she is attempting to please the majority voters besides taking steps to change perceptions exploited by the BJP.

As one of the confidantes of Mamata claims, “to win Bengal the BJP would need massive vote share of 65% of all the Hindu votes to get the majority mark. It hasn’t got such vote share in Gujarat or in UP, even. That’s not going to happen.”

The BJP has shown that in Assam which has 34.22% Muslim population and 61.47% Hindus it can manage the majority in assembly. Even though on the paper Mamata looks strong and has an edge in Bengal, this election is likely to be murky.

Both TMC and BJP have indulged in violence in the past. Law and order is in mess. The TMC leaders are joining the BJP in many districts but they are largely “muscle power” or the men with organisation capacity.

Says Dinesh Trivedi, TMC MP, “So far not a single leader has joined the BJP for sake of ideology. Bengal is all about Bhadralok. The BJP’s narrative in Bengal is missing the finesse. There is too much negativity around the BJP. Bengalis are culturally conscious people and they dislike negative campaigns.”

The TMC is branding the BJP as the party of “outsiders.” As in Bihar election of 2015, the issue of outsiders can influence the voters and hurt the BJP.

BJP banks heavily on division in Muslim votes and is employing all tactics to ensure the division of pro-TMC votes. By now it’s clear to most that in West Bengal, more than anywhere else, it’s the booth management that may ultimately make or break parties.

TMC and BJP are equally poised

In an election that is increasingly seen as bi-polar, the strength and resources at the booth level matter. On that account both the main parties — TMC and BJP — are equally poised, notes a TMC insider.

BJP is highlighting the anti-incumbency against the government and widespread corruption in the state. Lately, BJP is not directly attacking Mamata because she continues to be a popular leader in the state and doing so, the BJP thinking goes, might instantly create a “provincial instinct” in her support.

The chief minister’s talented nephew Abhishek Banerjee is BJP’s sharp target. The BJP is also banking on raising the issues related to Citizenship Amendment Act, National Register of Citizens, also. The local Bengalis in the border areas of Bengal have a grouse against infiltrators and some of them feel that the NRC can help fix the issue.

Curiously the BJP doesn’t have a powerful Bengali leader to match the aura and popularity of Mamata and that’s why the party will likely to focus on evoking historical chapters to stir the Bengali voters.

With the countdown to the West Bengal election already started — we are set to witness a rarest of rare Indian election where the BJP is testing its own achievements.

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This story first appeared in Gulf News

Issues faced by farmers are so diverse that it’s hard to have a coherent list of demands

The Indian streets have come alive ever since Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister in 2014. Now and then, street-level agitation challenges the Modi government.

Suhas Palshikar, one of India’s most distinguished political scientists calls it “the energy of non-political parties” in the society.

At a time when the mainstream opposition Congress and regional parties are failing to articulate the concerns of the people, this new wave of the protests, backed by the aggressive use of social media, is challenging the establishment.

Palshikar notes, “BJP handles the street agitation in calculated manner.” The government’s critics claim the BJP’s aggressive ‘campaign machine’ is making difference on the ground. Palshikar alleges, “BJP stigmatises their opponents and weakens the street movements.”

The massive uproar against the Land Acquisition Amendment bill (2015) was a success and the government had to dump the proposed amendments. In Maharashtra two street protests against the BJP-led government created national empathy. The Marathas had hit the streets demanding the reservation and the huge demonstrations of Dalits in Bhima-Koregaon in 2018 made a national impact. But, the most memorable has been the countrywide stir against Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) of 2019. Some of Modi government’s most staunch critics came together even as the anti-CAA agitation evoked images that went international.

The ongoing agitation of farmers, largely Sikhs and Jats of Punjab-Haryana, at the borders of Delhi against three agriculture produce related bills is witnessing extraordinary confidence of agitators.

Getting their voice heard

Apoorvanand, noted educationalist and intellectual, who himself has hit the streets many times in the past says, “Visiting the struggling farmers I didn’t find any protesters depressed. None is having the fear of Covid. There is camaraderie with the local population. That tension which was visible during Shaheen bagh (anti-CAA protests) isn’t present here. They won’t go back home without getting their voice heard.”

Adds Harish Damodaran, Agriculture Editor of Indian Express, “The farmers agitation is manifestations of humiliation and frustrations over the years. Its just not about the three new farm laws out of which two are harmless, actually. Mandis are dear to the farmers and they are feeling insecure about its future due to the new laws.”

More than 35 farmer unions and more than 18 political parties supported the countrywide strike on December 8 to express solidarity with Punjab-Haryana based farmers.

Shekhar Iyer, senior journalist says, “Those who have not been able to defeat the Modi regime through the elections are hitting the streets. It’s obvious that they don’t represent all sections of the society.”

Talking about the frequent street politics in the Modi era Apoorvanand claims, “BJP government has politicised average people like no other!” There is a feeling however that street protests against the Modi government are not having any real success. “A major difference has taken place since 2014. All street protests are matched by the counter-protests. This is a new phenomenon,” claims Apoorvanand.

Poorly drafted laws

But, it’s not easy to counter the farmer’s agitations. As the journalist Damodaran points out, “This farmer’s agitation is different than most recent agitations. It’s not easy to mobilise India against farmers. The counter-agitation against “annadata” in India can be counterproductive. The government has no option but listen to the farmers. The new laws are poorly drafted and passed in haste. The farmers are unlikely to go home without getting something in the bargain.”

Street politics keeps democracy alive and it is a leverage people create for themselves to negotiate with the government but sometimes the end result may be confusing.

The government did feel the heat during the CAA agitation, but the opinions are divided over the actual outcome.

This unprecedented release of creativity in forms of slogans, stand-up satires, graffiti, musicals and write-ups seen during the Shaheen baug agitation against the government may have actually helped the BJP to build-up of the counter-opinion. Many observers believe that the CAA accelerated polarisation which always helps the BJP.

Apoorvanand claims that the political, economic or social issues in the “fractured society” will not be of the “common interest” and that would eventually make the street agitation dull.

In absence of the validation of all sections of society the government remains unaffected, largely, he argues.

He says, “the Sikh farmers agitation has created curiosity but the “majoritarian attitude” developed under the Modi government isn’t allowing the farmer’s agitation to emerge as the “all people’s movement.”

Success of street level agitation?

A senior BJP leader and himself a farmer told Gulf News, “The street politics can succeed only if its based on social values. You have to hit the street for common good. What is the social values the farmers’ are fighting for? What will be the addition of the social value to life of farmers? We believe without a strong emotion binding the people, street level agitation can’t succeed.”

The problem with the current agitation is that the Indian farming sector and the issues faced by the farmers are so diverse that it’s difficult to have one coherent list of the demands. Palshikar concludes, “For larger politics, numbers are required. Without the numbers on their side, no street fights can win the battle.”

The farmers agitation on the Delhi borders would gain something for sure. May be the new farm laws are tweaked. There is less chance that it would be annulled. Whatever the outcome, one thing is for sure: the great Indian democracy is in action here and there is nothing called ‘too much of a democracy’.

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This story first appeared in Gulf News

BJP under Vajpayee led an efficient coalition government even without having a majority

Is the Hindu identity at the centre-point of Indian polity? Will the Modi model of politics work in future?

Are more Indian voters shifting to the Right since the Modi era began? Is polarisation on all key issues related to caste, religion, economy and governance becoming deeper?

Recently some of these questions have been in sharp focus in a couple of excellent books published on the idea of Hindu Rashtra, the fascinating subject of Vajpayee-Advani Jugalbandi (partnership) and the study of the evolution of the RSS over the century.

A range of authors from Aakar Patel (Our Hindu Rashtra), Vinay Sitapati (Jugalbandi), Shakti Sinha (Vajpayee) to Vijay Trivedi (Sangham Sharanam Gachchami) have written on the most pressing issues facing India.

Two ongoing significant political events stand out.

The campaign of the West Bengal assembly election is raising political heat in Delhi. If the BJP manages to win West Bengal and even if the Mamata Bannerjee-led TMC fails to stop BJP getting an impressive political space in Bengal, the Modi model of politics is expected take a giant leap forward.

If pre-election campaign in West Bengal is any indicator, we are in for some very intense and aggressive polls coming up.

Both, the BJP and the TMC are playing with the baser instincts of the voters.

BJP has the funds, resources and determination to defeat Mamata Bannerjee. It seems set to decimate the Left block and Congress. Bengali voters are likely to be more polarised before the voting day.

Another political development is even more significant. Supreme Court of India in its recent remarks has been exceptionally harsh on Modi government for its handling of the farmers protest.

Chief Justice S A Bobde questioned the Centre’s strong opposition to the court’s suggestion that the implementation of the farm laws enacted in September be kept on hold for the time being. On 12, January the Apex Court went head and froze the law.

This historic decision by the top court has come as an embarrassment for the Modi government. Laws passed by the elected representatives was under scrutiny due to the pressure of disgruntled groups.

Arguments between two sides (farmers versus government) in the court of the law have resulted in a not-so-legal conclusion that Modi government did not consult stakeholders enough before making the law.

This is as vague conclusion as it can be. The fact is that during negotiations the government revised its stand, for good of all sides. Perhaps the government was late to take into consideration both — farmer politics and politics of Punjab.

It tried to reverse many crucial clauses of the new laws — like imposing taxation on the trade conducted outside the designated market area. Mandis and the farmers are now allowed to settle legal issues in the regular courts.

It is clear that in the India of 2021 sharp polarisation on most issues is a regular phenomenon. Whether it is the issue of the new Farm Laws or the Citizenship Amendment Act or striking down of Article 370, polarisation within the country is so sharp that it reminds people of Vajpayee’s political model.

The famed Vajpayee model

Three-time Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee left behind a style of governance which carefully constructed a perception that the government wants consensus. The Vajpayee model was the workable mix of some elements of the Nehruvian diplomacy, recognition of the Hindu identity and consciously avoiding provocation.

A.S. Dulat, former chief of India’s RAW and Vajpayee’s adviser on Kashmir calls it, ‘the Samosa-Jalebi model.’

Vajpayee government’s handling of the Hurriyat politics is a case in point. When the most-awaited meeting happened between then Prime Ministrer Vajpayee and Kashmir’s separatist leadership in the PMO, the focus was on posturing and messaging while offering Samosas and Jalebis!

Vijay Trivedi, author of Vajpayee‘s biography and the Sangh’s 100 years of history told Gulf News, “I think the Vajpayee political model is more relevant for future governments. We have to understand the nature of Indian society. We believe in consensus and like to discuss each and every issue. Vaypayee ran his coalition government for six years and took very important decisions like India’s nuclear tests, Lahore declaration etc but took everyone along.”

There was political resistance and there were protests then too but Vajpayee didn’t antagonise different political forces.

An impressive record of victories 

Modi, despite of electoral setbacks in few states, has kept his record of victory impressive. But, at the same time this government is witnessing exceptional opposition on the street.

Modi and the BJP are getting thumbs up from voters but the polarisation within the voters has boiled down to the farm agitation type of situation.

Stalemate on the Farm Bills and government’s inability to end the agitation proves that Modi needs, ‘Samosas and Jalebi’ politics. The BJP needs to reinvent the political language for its adversaries within the framework of ‘Insaniyat and Jamooriyat’ (humanity and democracy).’

Indian democracy can create problems even when the government is acting within the legal framework.

As one of the former ministers of the Vajpayee cabinet noted, “only two model of politics will remain for the country if the BJP wins West Bengal. The Modi-Shah model and the Vajpayee model of politics.”

Vajpayee model worked when the BJP was leading the coalition government without having a majority. Modi government has an absolute majority therefore its political model is different.

However India’s ongoing polarisation and extreme discourse suggests that it is time to inject elements of Vajpayee model.

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This story first appeared in Gulf News

Just about everyone who matters in Delhi is asking one question: How is Amit bhai?

How is Amit Shah? This was the most frequently asked — not-so-innocent — political question circulating in New Delhi during the lockdown in India. In last three months, hundreds of people including senior editors of the country have dialed Shah’s office, his family and confidantes to know the actual health situation of the Home Minister, who is considered the most powerful man in the government after Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Political opponents of Shah, who make a formidable crowd, have been keeping a discreet watch on his health.

On September 17, believing rumours swirling around Shah’s health, a London-based broadcaster called a reporter in New Delhi to ask for inputs to add in Shah’s obituary which the news desk wanted to keep ready. A Mumbai-based tabloid decided to assign someone in Delhi to write the obituary of Shah if and when needed. The curiosity around Shah is not new. Shah has, without any hesitation, owned up positive and negative perceptions that go with the implementation of the government’s security agenda.

The political trajectory of the government has been so provocative that Shah simply can’t escape the wrath of its critics. The government under the leadership of Modi is dead against the leftist ideology, doesn’t give an inch of the democratically-elected legislature space to the judiciary and comes down severely on people whom it perceives as a threat to its plan to integrate, fully and finally, Jammu and Kashmir in India. Shah stands for all such issues.

Being a “bad cop” of the government, he is constantly the sole target of the political opponents of the government. The intellectuals of the secular-liberal world are unable to reconcile with his presence on Raisina Hill. Due to Shah’s role as the influencer, his health became a hotly debated political news, which compelled Shah to tweet saying he is doing fine. But, it didn’t help. The wild speculation about Shah’s health evidently shows not just the importance of being Amit Shah but speaks volumes on his capabilities.

The doctors in Delhi who have been treating him were more cautious than the patient. As a result, Amit bhai has ended up doing numerous tests including one for cancer, dengue, malaria, TB etc. These tests seem to have contributed to spreading rumours, too.

‘Amit bhai will have a long life’

A Gujarat-based professional astrologer, who has studied Shah’s horoscope told me, he was surprised to get so many calls inquiring about Shah’s health since June. His reply to all of them was, “in Shah’s horoscope Saturn is too powerful and it protects him. As per astrology, Amit bhai will have a long life.” The fact is that Shah has been feverishly working since the lockdown began. On most days his Ministry’s officers works in two shifts. Under the powerful Disaster Management act, he had become the nodal point to take quick decisions pertaining to many ministries.

When Modi took lead in announcing the lockdown, Shah worked round the clock but behind the scenes. It is well-known that Modi and Shah have a special relationship, but it’s not noticed enough — since 2014, only in the rarest of rare occasions both share the stage, screen or limelight. Their joint appearances in public can be counted on fingertips. That’s the way they have tightly scripted their public roles. Those who know Amit bhai enough will vouch that he is the audacious leader who will rush to own up to a terminal illness if he had any.

He often reminds his teammates, “I am not a politician! I have not come to Delhi, leaving behind my family in Ahmedabad, merely to help run the government. We have come here to change the country. (Sirf sarkar chalane nahi, Desh badalane aaye hai)”. Eventually, when Shah got COVID-19 he tweeted about it. He was hospitalised, as his immunity level went down. He is diabetic and has never hidden it.

A voracious reader

During his hospitalisation, he attended most of the virtual meetings and phone calls related to J&K and the North-East states. During his hospital stay, when all kinds of speculations were abound, he was reading Gujarati author Ashwini Bhatt’s novel Aashka Mandal and other books. At the AIIMS, while recuperating, he started the translation of Narad Samhita, the legendary Dharma Shastra. Narad Samhita has a fascinating dialogue between Narad muni and Yudhisthira, one of the Pandav brothers of the Mahabharat, on good governance, security and diplomacy. Shah wants to publish Hindi and Gujarati versions of it.

Shah who is known for his blunt talk and ruthless implementations of bold political decisions, which critics say pushes majoritarian agenda, has a passion for music, history and books. His Gandhian mother Kusum ba, inculcated in him a habit for reading. Shah has acquired the RSS DNA but in respect of his mother, he wears khadi, only.

Gaurishanker Joshi, who had the pen name Dhumketu, was a brilliant Gujarati short story writer. His novels on Chalukya dynasty, Gujarat’s Solanki era and the Gupta kingdom are well-known. Shah has been most influenced by writings of Dhumketu. K.M. Munshi (lawyer and member of Constituent assembly) and Dhumketu were formidable Gujarati writers in their time. Both writers books are in Shah’s resource-rich library in Ahmedabad. Shah is keen to actively participate in his party’s election campaign of 2021-22 in West Bengal, Assam and Uttar Pradesh. A victory in these states, if achieved, would give an edge to Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Grip over contemporary Indian politics

Many critics see Shah’s hand behind the controversial charge sheet of the Delhi riots and summary haul up of grass roots activists in the Bheema Koregaon case. They frequently ask: What is Shah up to? The answer lies in an accurate analysis of the broad changes taking place in Indian society and politics since 2013. Modi’s grip over contemporary Indian politics is so tight that it hardly gives space for analysts to think about the shape Indian politics would take by 2030, after two Lok Sabha elections (if all goes well) in 2024 and 2029.

Within the BJP it is very much safe to assume that Modi will remain at the top while in power and even without power because Modi has touched Indira Gandhi’s level of face recognition in the nook and corner of India, which takes him to a different level within the Sangh pariwar. Many ask if Shah will grow on his own as he has become the symbol of divisive politics within the non-BJP constituencies. As things stand today, Modi will surely have the veto power to decide his successor in the coming decade.

In a country like India, it takes more than a generation to create a leader and build up his or her pan-India leadership. With the increasing role of money and changing of morality compass, the making of the pan-Indian leader has turned out to be the most complex process in Indian politics. Who knows that better than Rahul Gandhi? Highly successful leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik, Pinarayi Vijayan and Amit Shah are well aware of it.

Many things transpiring in India are shaping up Modi’s second innings, but a lot is happening that would decide if the next pan-India leader will tilt ideologically more to the right of Modi or will they be on Modi’s left or the extreme opposite of Modi? In such a dynamic India, Shah might have scored when thousands ask, “How is Amit bhai?”.

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This story first appeared in gulfnews.com

Both Bollywood actors struggled and failed to cure Sushant Singh’s acute mental illness

The traditional Patna-based family of seven included Krishna Kishor Singh Rajput, his wife Usha, their four daughters and their youngest, Sushant.

The Rajput family’s destiny took a dramatic turn in 2002 when Usha died relatively young — due to hypertension and “panic attacks”. It affected mommy’s boy Sushant, who was studying in class 11 at that time.

As Sushant grew up, he started developing anxieties and pressures, as he felt a permanent vacuum grow in his life.

Even when he got success as an actor in Bollywood, his inner struggle continued, which reached a climax when he died an unnatural death on June 14, creating a storm in the Indian civil society.

Sushant could never take a lead or get full control of his own life. For outsiders, he had everything going for him — extremely good looking, fame, an acting career, money, you name it.

Sushant Singh Rajput Image Credit: Instagram.com/sushantsinghrajput

He had the love of his sisters, had many girlfriends, luxury cars, a chiselled body, and hard-earned success. Sushant dabbled in science, space, astronomy and spiritualty.

Since his suicide death has all the elements of a classic suspense drama, it encouraged escapism in home-stuck TV viewers in India and offered distraction to the ruling establishment which is grappling with a sinking economy during the pandemic.

Mumbai Police, which led the investigations into Sushant’s death — an event that continues to animate popular imagination in India — show that it is a case of suicide, where the actor was struggling with issues of drugs and serious mental disorders. The case has now been handed over to the CBI, India’s premier investigating agency.

The Rhea angle

For the last 18 months Rhea Chakraborty, 28, a beautiful and intelligent woman and a promising actress was a presence in Sushant’s life. She has been a successful Video Jockey on V TV.

Her Bengali father is now a retired doctor in the Indian Army while her mother Sandhya Chakraborty is a Konkani-Marathi speaking Gaud Sarasvat Brahmin.

Rhea’s family’s strong Bengali-Maharashtrian culture had a deep impact on Rhea and made her quite a confident urban girl who has never hesitated to take control of her life.

Rise of a star

He was intelligent and quite likeable, but he had violent mood swings. Sushant joined college in Delhi to study engineering but dropped out to try his luck in the Mumbai film industry. He got a big break in the TV serial Pavitra Rishta in 2009.

This show helped Sushant stabilise by 2011. He had a grim smile and well-built body that made him look both handsome and vulnerable on screen.

His TV serial’s producer Ekta Kapoor’s cousin Abhishek Kapoor gave Sushant his first Bollywood break in Kai Po Che, an offbeat film. But, with his foray into a highly competitive film world began his journey into the unknowns.

The film industry has largely been a closed shop. Most outsiders are put through tormenting tests at every faculty of film-making.

In 2012 during the shooting of the movie Kedarnath, Sushant came very close to newcomer Sara Ali Khan while shooting in the Himalayas.

Sushant and few colleagues allegedly tasted local intoxicants during their stay in Uttarakhand which formed into a deadly habit. It’s not surprising as some sects inhabiting the mountains regularly take intoxicants. On his return to Mumbai, Sushant started getting insomnia.

In 2014, the actor took counselling from Dr. Harish Shetty, a leading psychiatrist in Mumbai. He gave him medication to treat his sleeplessness.

Mental health issues

According to the Mumbai Police investigation, a host of psychiatrists were consulted by Sushant and all of them said that he was struggling with mental health issues. Sushant took heavy psychosomatic medicines. Two doctors told Mumbai Police that he took banned drugs too; use of which is rampant in the Mumbai film industry.

In one of the sessions with Suzzane Walker, a psychiatrist, Sushant showed extreme restlessness. His doctor diagnosed him with bipolar disorder.

The psychiatrist told the cops that Sushant knew he was having mental issues, but he wasn’t ready to accept it. He wanted to get the fastest cure, but never took medicines regularly.

On 15 November while talking to Dr Walker, his girlfriend Rhea said that Sushant was very frightened and didn’t want to live any longer.

Most doctors revealed that Rhea was genuinely concerned about Sushant’s health. Walker further told the police that on a scale of 1 to 10, his mental condition had reached to a scale of 9 to 10 by end of November 2019.

One of the doctors told the cops that Sushant might have taken the decision to commit suicide as a final resort as he may not have wanted his family to suffer because of his health issues.

On November 28, 2019 he met Dr. Kersi Bomi Chavda along with Rhea in Hinduja Hospital where he had gotten admitted. Sushant told the doctor he is scared all the time. Dr. Chavda wrote on Sushant’s medical papers, “Evidence of Severe Anxiety plus Depression and Existential Crisis.”

Depression and restlessless

He was shortly prescribed heavy medicines to reduce his depression and restlessness. Sushant did not have many films since late 2018. He used to complain that nothing is working as per his expectations. This added to his insecurity.

Quintessentially, a thoughtful boy, Sushant told everyone — his doctors, Rhea and his sisters that he wanted to go to South India to some quiet place. He found Mumbai too crowded.

On June 8 this year, Sushant had a video call with Dr. Chavda who advised him to take his medication regularly. The same day Sushant parted ways with Rhea.

And, within five days he was no more.

It is a real shame that this acutely sad story is messed up by media, investigative agencies and politicians.

If it is proved that Sushant was murdered, then it will be a real surprise because nobody could have possibly benefited from his death. No big amount has been transferred into Rhea or anyone’s account, Mumbai Police has repeatedly claimed.

A case of suicide

The suicide theory is logical because three of Sushant’s sisters told police soon after his death that their brother’s death was suicide. Meetu, one of his sister’s, who reached Sushant’s house and took charge of his dead body called her sister in Delhi and described her brother’s death as a case of suicide. All four sisters have admitted that Sushant was feeling low since November last year.

The tragic story exploded partly because Mumbai Police and Maharashtra’s political leadership didn’t respond in time to investigate the possibility of murder by filing an FIR.

The police commissioner of Mumbai, Param Bir Singh, used to be the deputy to Hemant Karkare in the anti-terrorist squad when terror cases involving accused like Col Shrikant Purohit and Sadhvi Pragnya Thakur were investigated. BJP has a strong grouse against him as he was quite strict in quizzing Sadhvi Thakur.

However, some celebrity Indian TV anchors have declared Rhea guilty and a non-stop, vulgar TV coverage has diminished the sorrow of Sushant’s death, while the drugs nexus in Bollywood and its alleged linkages with Rhea’s family has taken centerstage.

Meanwhile, by pressing for CBI to investigate the murder angle, the BJP has successfully resonated with Rajput community in Bihar who are just 5% but influential enough to swing many seats in the coming elections.

Let us acknowledge that Sushant and Rhea’s joint but failed struggle to cure his mental illness is 21st century India’s real love story.

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This story first appeared in Rediff.com

“China has a pattern of risk taking behaviour at times of domestic crisis,” Shivshankar Menon, former national security adviser, former foreign secretary and former Indian ambassador to China, tells Rediff.com Senior Contributor Sheela Bhatt

Did India read the border situation little incorrectly in early May?

Frankly, we cannot say what the reading was and what the actual situation is. We do not know enough about the situation because there are many stories, many leaks, many inspired stories, lots of guess work, the same satellite pictures are interpreted in opposite ways by different people.

So, I think we need to accept that there is a whole area here that we don’t know about. We will probably find out in time, but today if you ask what is the actual situation on the boundary, it’s very hard to say.

I don’t think anyone outside official circles can give you the answer. Even in official circles very few people can give you an honest answer. So, once that (the factual ground situation) is established only then is it possible to say whether we misread the situation.

If you don’t know the situation, how can you read or misread? I can only say that we have worked ourselves into a position — both sides have — and from the outside it looks to me like this because of what China has chosen to do which is different from what she did before.

We have worked ourselves into a position where there is certainly a crisis in the relationship.

But your experienced eyes can read between the lines of the interviews of Chinese Ambassador Sun Weidong and India’s Ambassador in China, Vikram Misri.

My experience applies to what I know in the past. Today, you have contradictory statements. What I mean is, that you have areas where certainly there are different suggestions where the Chinese are now saying that the entire Galwan Valley is theirs. (It is) Not the truth because we have been there.

Secondly, what we know is that we are being prevented from patrolling certain areas which we have always patrolled in the past, in Galwan and in other places also.

Thirdly, we know that China did it first and then India built up forces all along the Line (Line of Actual Control) and not only in the Western sector, also in other places.

That, I think nobody has denied. Neither government has denied and it seems to be a fact. So, we have a crisis. That’s why I say we have a crisis, not because of just one spot or another.

Frankly, unless you are looking at the intelligence and dealing with it on a day to day basis, I will not guess. Whatever I might have known in the past is not necessarily relevant today, because the whole point is that it seems to me that the Chinese behaviour has changed on the border because this is now happening across the Line in several places.

It is not just one intrusion in one place, not just a five or ten day event. It is not like the intrusion in Depsang as we had in 2013. This is something much bigger than what we faced in Doklam in 2017.

I’d be very careful about drawing big conclusions on the basis of what little we know. In these things it is best to go by the facts.

Right.

It is best to be very careful about what we say about this. You know there are lives involved here and we have already lost 20 lives on our side.

This is serious and you know it would be irresponsible for people to go on talking about this. This is not some game, this is a serious business between two serious countries with very large armies.

And so, I am very careful, therefore, in jumping to big conclusions and saying things about the situation on the ground.

We can talk about what the two countries think, what they should do, why are we in this position, all that is fine, but the actual situation on the ground, I think, there is far too much speculation and most of it is based on no knowledge whatsoever.

Why now? Is it because China sees India as a weak country fighting an economic downturn and a pandemic?

My own sense is that, you know, the pandemic has diminished all of us. China included. China will not admit it. It is not in their nature to say so, but the fact is it started there, it has hit them as well, their economy also is suffering and this is true of all the powers.

Some might come out of it quicker; some might be less, but the fact is that it has diminished all of us.

In that situation what we are seeing is an assertive China across the board. It is not only vis a vis India. It is tough on Hong Kong where despite the previous agreements, China has chosen to pass the national security law herself without consulting the Hong Kong institutions which gives her security control and presence within Hong Kong. This is diminishing Hong Kong’s autonomy which she was permitted to maintain for fifty years.

China is flying military aircraft in Taiwanese air space, she is also sending submarine ships near Senkaku in the East China Sea which is disputed with Japan.

There is a pattern of Chinese behaviour of assertiveness in the last few months which, I think, is across the board. Therefore, I think what we are seeing is part of a larger pattern.

When China itself is deep in problems, why now? People tend to talk aggressively from a position of strength.

If you look at China’s behaviour traditionally, it is an interesting thing. When China had a massive revolt in Tibet from 1959 onwards and a famine, when she was having a dispute with both the Soviet Union and the USA, that’s when she went to war with India in 1962.

When you look at China’s response to a crisis, she has been willing to take risks abroad. At times she was willing to enter Korea in the Korean War in 1950 when she had still not consolidated even the People’s Republic of China, when she had internal enemies, when China was facing the most powerful country on earth.

So, China has a pattern of risk taking behaviour at times of domestic crisis.

I think the leadership probably finds it a useful device to unite people around it, and they have made use of this before.

In 1979 when they attacked Vietnam, it was when (Deng Xiaoping’s economic) reform had barely started in December 1978. They attacked Vietnam in February 1979.

It is not necessary that we should judge Chinese behaviour by their actions and to make assumptions that ‘Oh, the domestic economy might be in trouble, therefore they want to do this’ and so on, I think that is not correct.

This is part of the problem. When we look at China, we expect China to behave the way we would.

China looks at us and expects us to behave the way China would!

And this mirror imaging is the most dangerous thing because it leads to tremendous misunderstandings.

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BJP led India government will only talk about PoK and not about Jammu & Kashmir with Pakistan as they think J&K are India’s integral part. The government is also shaping its policy on Pakistan China economic border developing a rhetoric on PoK. Sheela Bhatt, a SWAM India member gives a detail picture of this strategy from New Delhi.

The Modi government is shaping its policy over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor by raising rhetoric over Pakistan occupied Kashmir.

Foreign Minister Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s statement on Tuesday, September 17, at his first press conference after he turned politician, over PoK is part of the calibration of India’s more nuanced position post the dilution of Article 370 over proposed infrastructure projects in PoK under the CPEC banner.

‘Our position on PoK has always been and will always be very clear. PoK is part of India and we expect one day that we will have the physical jurisdiction over it,’ Dr Jaishankar declared at his press conference.

This rhetoric is multi-layered.

After Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Home Minister Amit A Shah’s statement on PoK, one coming from someone with four decades of diplomatic experience signifies there is a fundamental change in India’s ongoing diplomacy on the Kashmir issue with Pakistan and it will have an effect on India’s ongoing stand over China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.

After the August 5 decision to nullify terms of Article 370, it is clear that India’s previous stand on the Kashmir issue, particularly during the United Progressive Alliance’s 10 year rule, has fundamentally changed.

“All these years India was saying Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India. We will have bilateral talks with Pakistan on many issues including Kashmir and terrorism. India’s stand was, ‘Chalo, baat karte hai (Okay, let’s talk)’,” a senior leader privy to the foreign policy changes said.

“Now, India doesn’t think the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir is a subject for talks with Pakistan. Jo mera tha, mera hai, mera hi rahega (what was mine, is mine and will remain mine). We shall not talk about it.”

If uncertainties increase in PoK, then India has to talk about it, the leader said, adding that India can no longer be defensive.

Parliament’s 1994 resolution, which claims all of Jammu and Kashmir including PoK as an integral part of India, has shown the framework for talks, the leader explained.

The new trajectory of talks will carry on from the 1994 resolution passed unanimously by Parliament when P V Narasimha Rao was India’s prime minister.

In other words, any future talks with Pakistan will be only about PoK, tactically or otherwise.

This is the Bharatiya Janata Party line and the Narendra D Modi government is calibrating it.

Since 2017, India has emphatically maintained that China’s Belt and Road Initiative project undermines India’s sovereignty in the form of the CPEC which runs through the disputed territory of Pakistan occupied Kashmir. India’s strategic concerns are hard to ignore for any government in New Delhi.

In 2017, India had declined to join the first Belt and Road Forum meet. the ministry of external affairs’s strong statement then had given a glimpse of Prime Minister Modi’s thinking over the status of PoK.

That statement is worth revisiting after dilution of Article 370. In its May 2017 statement, India asserted, ‘Regarding the so-called ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’, which is being projected as the flagship project of the BRI/OBOR, the international community is well aware of India’s position. No country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity.’

PoK was top of the Indian government’s mind when India rejected Beijing’s invite to attend the Belt and Road Forum meet.

The government’s August 5 move regarding Article 370 is set to culminate in new terms and terminology for future talks with Pakistan.

The Indian stand will be that if and when India and Pakistan’s bilateral talks take place any issues concerning Jammu and Kashmir will not be on the table.

The talks, tactically or otherwise, will only be on PoK.

Soon after Dr Jaishankar’s mention of ‘physical jurisdiction of PoK’, Jammu and Kashmir Governor Satpal Malik’s pacifist statement that one day Kashmiris of PoK will themselves demand to join Jammu and Kashmir is seen as fine-tuning of the issue in the light of Modi’s visit to America.

Original article: rediff.com

New Delhi: Pakistan’s Foreign Office, last month in Islamabad, briefed the ambassadors of the P5 countries—the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France—on a possible terror incident in Kashmir and its likely fallout, including “a possible surgical strike by India in view of Indian media reports”, said a diplomat in the Ministry of External Affairs, who is well-versed in Pakistan affairs. “Pakistan was building up its case by saying, don’t blame us if anything happens in the region,” he said.

The P-5 ambassadors were shown many Indian news reports and a few media assessments of the election prospects of the Narendra Modi government to try and prove the point that the Indian Prime Minister needed to go to war with Pakistan to win a re-election. Before the budget, staunch critics of Modi in the India media were suggesting that only a populist budget and a “limited war” with Pakistan could ensure that he would regain his “lost ground”. These reports were used by the Pakistan establishment to try and prove its “case”.

Talking about the briefing by Islamabad, former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal said, “The P5 diplomats are not so naive that they will believe in any such pre-emptive diplomatic strikes by Pakistan. Pakistan was pleading for ‘benefit of doubt’, by suggesting that some groups in the region may do something in Kashmir, but they weren’t guided by them or supported by them. No one buys this. P5 ambassadors are cynical enough to understand the Pakistani game plan.”

Srikanth Kondapalli, chairman of East Asian Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University concurs with Sibal, while adding another argument: “China wants the US, Russia and Europe out of the India-Pakistan region. China has completed 26 out of 43 infrastructure related projects in Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project and now wants to be a mediator in the unresolved disputes between India and Pakistan. Any counter-action by India after Pulwama has to take into account this factor, too.”

“In Pulwama, Pakistan has covered its tracks better compared to the Uri and Pathankot attacks. In Pulwama, the suicide bomber is an Indian boy, which changes the track of investigation. This is a model used in Afghanistan and is a surprise for India. Pakistan seems to have studied the fallout of the Pathankot and Uri attacks and has improved upon its tactics,” the diplomat in MEA said. He added, “Knowing Pakistani diplomats well, they are trying to sell to the P5 countries the line that Delhi’s actions are election related, that Modi is trying hard to save his image in his domestic constituency. Pakistan is trying to send the message that if any retaliatory action is taken against Pakistan for what a Kashmir born Indian youth has done, it would respond strongly.”

However, Vivek Katju, former Secretary and Pakistan expert, does not think Pakistan’s briefing to the P5 is of any consequence. He said that neither the US nor China could restrict India’s choices. “India has the capacity to handle any pressure which seeks to limit its options,” he added.

source: Sunday Guardian Live

The crucial question is what kind of public image Priyanka wants to project. Because what she initiates for herself now, will remain in contemporary Indian politics for a quarter century for sure. Accordingly, she will have to script her speeches, tone of delivery of ideas and political actions.

When asked why Priyanka Gandhi Vadra decided to take the plunge into politics at this point of time, a senior Congress leader responded by asking counter a question, “Ab nahi to kab (if not now, when)?”

While justifying her decision and its timing he elaborated that just imagine if she would have entered Indian politics before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, how disastrous it would have been, as results showed later that there was a huge anti-UPA wave at the time.

WHY NOW?

A hard look at the realities as they exist today for Congress will show that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s (name as written by the AICC press release) entry is quite logical at a time when a raging battle of ideologies is going on. She has been sharper and angrier in protecting “Nehru’s ideology” than any other Congress man or woman. Narendra Modi’s five-year term was invested in demystifying Jawaharlal’s Nehru’s legacy. The Gandhis think that before the final assault comes from the RSS-BJP, it’s time to accept the challenge by pulling out all stops. Those who ask “why now?” should know that Priyanka was all set to enter politics, since long. She was all dressed-up and ready, waiting in the wings. Priyanka’s entry and her qualities to lead the party, in the eyes of party men and women, were never in any doubts. And even though Sonia Gandhi had taken the decision to launch her son first in politics and not Priyanka, who was in greater demand among the Congress cadre, all big decisions have been taken in her presence—like in 2004, when Congress won the Lok Sabha elections, the decision on Sonia Gandhi’s rejection of the Prime Minister’s chair was taken inside 10, Janpath where she was present with her mother and brother. Even though Priyanka stayed behind the curtains and her role was in the realm of speculation, she was a huge presence in the decision-making processes. And she has to her “credit” a few failures too—like her idea of allying with the Samajwadi Party before the 2017 UP Assembly elections. She came to the forefront only when, after 14 long years of joining politics Rahul came to be accepted as a “neta” that Congressmen understand and accept. Such an acceptance comes only when electoral victory arrives, which came in the form of the three states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh won by the party in December 2018.

Of course the Gandhis cannot stop BJP and its supporters from saying “Priyanka’s entry amounts to Rahul’s failure”, but the fact is that within Congress, Rahul took a grip of the levers of power before he invited his sister to become a general secretary. Congress managers will have to ensure now that Priyanka’s charisma and natural political intensity do not overshadow Rahul Gandhi’s slow evolution as a political leader. For that would confuse the party cadre and will defeat the targets the Congress wants to achieve in the 2019 elections. But this delicate balancing act, for public consumption, will be like walking on glass, because the media and the rival parties will exploit this fault-line of the Gandhis constantly. In this regard, the strength of the Gandhis is that the personal equation between Rahul and Priyanka is considered unusually good, which should help them duck the arrows coming their way. But if the media constantly highlights any possible verbal duel between Modi and Priyanka, it will take away the spotlight from Rahul. A senior Congress leader claims that since Rahul has acquired political heft after taking on Modi in the Rafale case and has won three states, Priyanka’s entry will help “speed up” consolidating Rahul’s recent gains. Rather, he explains, Gandhis are now not wasting time and investing all in ensuring a “Modi-mukt India” in 2019; also, BJP will be hit where it hurts as Priyanka will not need to make any efforts to get prime time TV coverage.

But the balancing act between the brother and sister is a small part of the story, when, for the Congress, the real elephant in the room is Narendra Modi and Savarkar’s ideology. The Congress knows it faces a long winter if Modi returns to power. Notwithstanding its recent victory in three Hindi-belt states Congress has been pushed to the wall by the regional forces. In Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, anti-BJP forces are not giving Congress even one extra inch to fight the big ideological battle—that is to defend the “Constitutionally guaranteed secularism”. The regional forces don’t think that only a pan-India party can take on BJP’s “communal game plans” for India’s future. So Congress’ “secular” credentials are no bargaining chips when it comes to the regional parties. This hard reality has forced the Gandhis to put their entire savings on the table in this election.

The BJP leadership has understood this, quickly. A senior BJP leader, who is part of his party’s campaign planning in UP said, “Now, with the Priyanka card in hand, Congress should bargain hard to get a respectable number of seats from SP-BSP and from other states. If they don’t get around 20 seats in UP from the regional parties, then Priyanka’s hyped entry will go in vain much sooner than a friendly media can think of.”

He points out that “Congress’ biggest problem is that it wants to defeat Modi with a vengeance but in process of achieving that target, if it turns ambitious and ignores the SP-BSP, TMC and TDP, it will be ‘Advantage Modi’. In Congress’ so-called fight for secularism, it’s all alone. It’s hardly fighting with any seriousness on 270 out of 543 seats. SP-BSP are not happy to see Congress diluting their chance of defeating BJP in UP.”

Precisely for this reason, Priyanka’s entry is aimed to strengthen Congress’ bargaining power during pre-poll negotiations for alliances. If Priyanka’s entry is carefully launched in the first week of February and if she is able to strike a chord with voters outside the family seats of Amethi and Rai Bareli, then analysts think that in around 15 seats of eastern UP, she may be able to eat into a portion of BJP’s and Mahagathbandhan’s votes. As in UP, the population of upper castes and Dalits+Muslims is in the ratio of 1:4, the damage to SP-BSP will be much more than the BJP.

WORRIES OF CONGRESS

After the announcement of Priyanka’s entry most Congress leaders kept saying, “Let’s see how it works out. Mahaul banana baki hai (the atmosphere has to be created).” The crucial question is what kind of public image Priyanka wants to project. Because what she initiates for herself now, will remain in contemporary Indian politics for a quarter century for sure. Accordingly, she will have to script her speeches, tone of delivery of ideas and political actions. She has not given a substantially long speech on any big issues so far. Nobody has any clue whether or not her anger with RSS-BJP-Modi is backed by knowledge and information. Also, there is the Robert Vadra factor, and his cases, lurking in the background. She always prodded the party to stand up and speak in defence of her husband whenever he faced any allegations. But now the cases against Vadra will get more coverage.

Those who know her claim that “Priyanka will be smart mix of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi.” Meaning, she will be firm and ruthless in her politics and amenable and charming like her father in public interactions. However, with some Buddhist influence on her, she is more like her father than grandmother, claim people who have interacted with her. The fact is, she has given mixed signals of her actual personality.

A veteran public-image builder and staunch Congress supporter claims, “Priyanka will play a bad cop and Rahul Gandhi will be the good cop.”

Another Congress insider claims: “What Rahul could not enforce within Congress, Priyanka will. When people meet Rahul they say, his heart is in the right place. But Priyanka will be the doer.”

They say that Priyanka will give it back as she gets it from the saffron leaders.

Priyanka’s immediate task is to help her brother and the party to defeat Modi in the 2019 elections, but the process has to be such, through election campaigning, that ultimately helps her build her own public persona too. Already, Rahul Gandhi has said that Priyanka is fighting a long term battle.

source: Sunday Guardian Live