Even the powerful Americans couldn’t convince China to abandon its ‘all-weather ally’ Pakistan in banning the JeM chief.

India has expressed its disappointment at the fact that China has once again preventedJaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar from being listed as a global terrorist by the UN, but the truth is that hard-knuckled diplomacy could hardly retrieve what was lost on the ground that awful morning of 27 February.

The minute Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman’s jet was shot down by the Pakistan Air Force over Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, the gains of the Indian Air Force strikes on Balakot the previous day substantially evaporated.

After that, the Narendra Modi government had only one option. Bombing Pakistan again would have put the IAF pilot’s life in danger, and in any case the international community would have hardly allowed another attack that risked escalation between two hostile nuclear powers.

The only option was to sue for de-escalation with Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi had no choice but to grit his teeth and give his word. Imran Khan, who forgot to make the peace offer to return Abhinandan Varthaman the first time he stood up and spoke in Pakistan’s parliament, has since looked like quite the good guy in the eyes of the international community.

Having been forced into a stalemate in the skies, it was now up to India’s diplomats to deliver the goods. A statement by the UN had already come condemning the Pulwama attacks, including by China. For the last two weeks or so, the Ministry of External Affairs put its entire weight in a massive lobbying exercise to persuade the Chinese to not come in the way of proscribing Masood Azhar under 1267 Sanctions Committee. The US led the campaign at the UN Security Council and other countries like France, UK and Australia pitched in.

Last night Beijing thumbed its nose in the face of all those asking. Former foreign secretary and National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon recently told me in an interview that India was using up a lot of its international goodwill for an irrelevance. “What good will it do to ban Masood Azhar? It’s not as if the UN is going to march into Islamabad and pick him up?”

Certainly, the Balakot strikes have signalled India’s intent to not continue to take pain lying down. The IAF has done a difficult job very well, by targeting the madrassa of the Jaish camp in Balakot. The strikes may or may not have killed people, but they signal India’s intention to protect itself by striking at will.

In the end, even the powerful Americans couldn’t convince the Chinese to abandon its ‘all-weather ally’ Pakistan in banning the JeM chief. With Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s top officials talking so they can arrive at some sort of a conclusion over fair trade, it is unlikely Trump would have pushed Xi so much on the India count.

Simply put, Trump may not have wanted to go out on a limb for India, even though his officials, admittedly, pushed the Chinese to give in and not look like an outlier.  They probably did more than anyone else in the P-5, even if France and the UK have rushed to take credit. Russia remained taciturn, not willing to antagonise the Chinese.

Equally important, the Chinese don’t seem to have listened to the US. In 2008, Beijing blinked when the US pressed for an exemption for India at the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. Today, the Chinese are far more powerful and demand to be treated as such. They demonstrated last night at the Security Council in New York that they needn’t listen to the most powerful nation in the world, because they are almost as powerful.

Fact is, the Modi government refused to learn from Atal Bihari Vajpayee and ask why he didn’t cross the Line of Control back into Pakistan when India and Pakistan fought a mini-war in Kargil, 20 years ago in 1999. Modi’s top national security officials clearly haven’t read the files or newspaper clippings quoting then foreign minister Jaswant Singh who said, time and again, “Map-making in the subcontinent must come to an end.”

What did Vajpayee and Jaswant Singh and Brajesh Mishra, a predecessor of NSA Ajit Doval, mean in 1999? And why didn’t Modi listen to the voices of his own BJP elders and betters?

Vajpayee, Singh and Mishra meant that India could only hope to defang Pakistan if it played divide-and-rule. Divide up the population by supporting civilian initiatives like travel, trade, education and health, and make India so popular inside Pakistan that you can diminish the all-powerful military establishment.

Modi has done the exact opposite these last five years. He has played fast and loose with his Pakistan policy, sometimes shunning the Pakistanis, other times inviting himself over for wedding celebrations. At the same time, he has adopted a muscular approach inside Kashmir. The result is for all to see.

The nonchalant Chinese refusal to ban Masood Azhar is a major lesson in realpolitik. India cannot allow itself to be baited by the Beijing-Islamabad duo. It has to choose revenge at a time and place of its own making. That time will come, but it is not now.

Want to hear experts engage over the big issues of the day? We bring you Talk Point.

source: The Print

source: The Hindu

पाकिस्तान के खिलाफ भारत को बड़ी कूटनीतिक सफलता मिली है. दुनिया के तीन ताकतवर देश अमेरिका, ब्रिटेन और फ्रांस मसूद अजहर पर प्रतिबंध लगाने के लिए एक बार फिर संयुक्त राष्ट्र में प्रस्ताव लाएंगे.

पुलवामा हमले के बाद भारत ने पाकिस्तान पर चौतरफा दबाव बनाया है. हमले के बाद कई देश भारत का समर्थन कर चुके हैं. पुलवामा में हुए आत्मघाती हमले की जैश ने जिम्मेदारी ली थी. जैश का सरगना मसूद अजहर पाकिस्तान में छिपा बैठा है.

हमले के 6 दिन बाद चुप्पी तोड़ते हुए पाकिस्तानी पीएम इमरान खान ने भारत से सबूत मांगा था. इमरान खान ने इस कायराना हमले की निंदा तक नहीं की.

सूत्रों के मुताबिक अगले कुछ दिनों में फ्रांस संयुक्त राष्ट्र में मसूद अजहर पर प्रतिबंध लगवाने के लिए प्रस्ताव लाएगा. यह दूसरा मौका होगा जब फ्रांस संयुक्त राष्ट्र में ऐसे किसी प्रस्ताव के लिए पक्ष बनेगा. 2017 में अमेरिका ने ब्रिटेन और फ्रांस के समर्थन से संयुक्त राष्ट्र की प्रतिबंध समिति 1267 में एक प्रस्ताव पारित किया था, जिसमें पाकिस्तान स्थित आतंकी संगठन जैश के प्रमुख मसूद अजहर पर प्रतिबंध लगाने की मांग की गई थी. इस प्रस्ताव पर चीन ने अड़ंगा लगा दिया था.

फ्रांस के इस फैसले पर फ्रांस के राष्ट्रपति के कूटनीतिक सलाहकार फिलिप एतिन और राष्ट्रीय सुरक्षा सलाहकार अजीत डोभाल के बीच मंगलवार सुबह ही बातचीत हुई थी. इस दौरान पुलवामा हमले को लेकर गहरी संवेदनाएं व्यक्त करते हुए फ्रांसीसी कूटनीतिज्ञ ने इस बात पर भी जोर दिया कि दोनों देशों को अपने कूटनीतिक प्रयासों में समन्वय करना चाहिए.

पुलवामा हमले के 100 घंटे के भीतर भारत ने हमले को अंजाम देने वाले जैश के 3 आतंकियों को ढेर कर दिया था. हालांकि इस एनकाउंटर में भारत को बड़ी कीमत चुकानी पड़ी. इस मुठभेड़ में सेना के मेजर समेत चार जवानों को शहादत देनी पड़ी.

source: Aaj Tak

In this episode of Wide Angle, Maya Mirchandani talks with David Devadas about the Pulwama terror attack.

New Delhi: In this episode of Wide Angle, Maya Mirchandani discuss the recent Pulwama attack with David Devadas. David has covered Kashmir conflict extensively over the last few years and have also authored two books The Generation of Rage in Kashmir and In Search of a Future: The Story of Kashmir.

The attack in Pulwama took the lives of over 40 CRPF personnel. Pakistan-based terrorist outfit has claimed responsibility for the attack. India has urged the international community to pressure Pakistan to take action against the terror outfits based in its territory.

Watch the video to find out what lessons can be learnt from the attack.

source: The Wire

“Farmers will get money in their accounts. We will tell farmers it’s just the beginning and there will be a series of programmes. The state government cannot match it because their assistance should be above Rs 6,000,” says Shobha Karandlaje, BJP general secretary, MP from Uduppi Chikmagalur, Karnataka.

Is the BJP trying to come to power in Karnataka by mustering numbers to topple the JD(S)-Congress government?

Currently, there are no such efforts. We have been asked to concentrate on the Lok Sabha elections. Our leader B S Yeddyurappa will soon announce our campaign plans.

The Congress and JD(S) have been circulating audio clips to show the BJP is trying to create problems for their coalition government.

The Congress and JD(S) have been circulating audio clips to show the BJP is trying to create problems for their coalition government.

But what about the rumours that B S Yeddyurappa thinks it is his last chance to become CM and so has been trying to lure MLAs from the JD(S) and Congress?

It’s a lie. Yeddyurappa was CM and can become CM again. Who says it is his last chance? Right now he is the leader of opposition which is equivalent to CM.

What would the BJP campaign highlight in Karnataka?

The fact that the JD(S)-Congress government does not have anything to show as far as development or initiatives go. Both the parties have serious internal issues and have been busy resolving these the last six months. They have forgotten the people. They gave elaborate speeches on farm loan waivers, claimed 49 per cent of the loans had been waived off, but the reality is not even 10 per cent benefited.

In 2014, we had promised a corruption-free government at the Centre, raising India’s glory and honour in the world, welfare of the armed forces and development. We have succeeded a great deal. Everyone knows that five years is not enough to achieve all this.

Will the PM-KISAN scheme will help?

Definitely. Farmers will get money in their accounts. We will tell farmers it’s just the beginning and there will be a series of programmes. The state government cannot match it because their assistance should be above Rs 6,000 (the annual allotment to marginal farmers under the KISAN scheme).

Caste is likely to play a key role in the elections in Karnataka. How does the BJP plan to attract other groups besides the Lingayats, known to be its strong base?

It’s so in state elections, but in the Lok Sabha polls, Karnataka will vote to elect the Prime Minister. The BJP has always won votes from across communities in parliamentary elections. The party had won 17 seats which included constituencies where the Vokkaligas have a strong presence in 2014. We won three seats in Bengaluru.

Will issues like the terror attack in Pulwama have an impact?

We have to do something about it. We have to teach Pakistan a lesson. Whatever has to be done at the border will be done by our forces. What our government will do is get the international community’s support for our decisions. We have full faith in our Prime Minister, who holds influence in the global community.

The BJP Karnataka unit is battling inner-party differences. How will you resolve these ahead of polls?

The party is united. We are fighting elections led by Yeddyurappa in the state and Prime Minister Narendra Modi  at the Centre. Yeddyurappa will soon take out a yatra  to cover all constituencies.

Karnataka is the only state in the south where the BJP has high hopes of winning seats. Is it putting pressure on you?

Not at all. In the past, the BJP has won 19 seats in the Lok Sabha polls in the state. Even in 2014, in the three constituencies we lost, we lost with a small margin. The atmosphere now is such that the party can win 20 seats.

source: The Indian Express

For those in China and Pakistan who will call for more evidence, the writing, like the signature of the group, is on the wall.

Every February, security agencies put out heightened alert warnings in Jammu and Kashmir, as they expect terror groups operating there to target security forces and installations around the date of February 9, when Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru was hanged.

Groups like the JeM (Jaish-e-Mohammed) and LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba) glorify him, as much for his perceived role in the attack in December 2001 that killed nine guards and Parliament staff, as much as to renew the perception in the Kashmir Valley that he was not given a proper burial and the full process of appeals.

As a result, the JeM’s “Afzal Guru squad” has made a point of leaving their signature at several attacks linked to them: letters in blood, charcoal notes on the wall with his name were found first in May 2014 when the Indian consulate at Herat in Afghanistan was attacked and then in a series of strikes on Army and CRPF camps along the LoC and International Border, Mohra and Tangdhar in north Kashmir and in Kathua and Samba in Jammu division the next year.

At the same time as it carried out the Pathankot airbase attack in January 2016, JeM terrorists attacked the Indian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif in Afghanistan, leaving behind notes on Afzal Guru as they had with the others, “one martyr, a thousand fidayeen”.

It is significant that in the Pulwama attack videos, the attacker, identified as Adil Ahmed Dar, a local, is shown surrounded by weapons and grenades, but doesn’t mention Afzal Guru himself. However, the group that put the videos out after editing and completing them, added a scroll that said “AGS (Afzal Guru Squad).

Officials say they are still investigating the link to the group, but it seems clear that the attack falls in line with other attacks planned by Masood Azhar and his JeM: within a few months of him being released in exchange for hostages on board flight IC-814 on December 31, 1999, the JeM carried out a suicide car bomb attack on the Army Headquarters in Srinagar (May 2000) and a similar attack on the Srinagar legislature (September 2001), which killed 39 people. The Parliament attack just a few months later was carried out by the JeM as well, although more recent studies have indicated that it was working with elements of the Pakistani army to force a situation that would allow Islamabad to withdraw forces from its border with Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden was able to slip away despite being cornered in the Tora Bora standoff.

That Azhar was responsible for the IC-814 hijacking is proven beyond doubt, and has been accepted by himself in his book (From Imprisonment to Freedom), recounting his time in Indian jails from 1993-1999.

Despite what appears to be a mountain of evidence since then, as well as the banning of the JeM itself, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has failed to ban Azhar and put him on its 1267/1373 lists of banned terrorists.

The main obstacle at present is China, which has vetoed the banning on at least three occasions as it maintains there is “no consensus” on the issue.

The second reason is Pakistan itself, which has allowed Azhar to settle as a civilian in the Punjabi city of Bahawalpur, and does not prevent him from holding rallies to recruit militants, particularly in the name of Afzal Guru, whom he often quotes in books and speeches. This, despite him being accused of a car bomb assassination attempt on former Pakistan President Musharraf as well.

Some blame also rests on the India’s lack of focus post 26/11, when it strengthened efforts towards the prosecution of LeT founder Hafiz Saeed.

Azhar came back on the radar only after the Pathankot attack in January 2016. India renewed its efforts to have him banned, and protested China’s attempts to block the UNSC application.

After the Wuhan summit between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping, however, India’s concerns on Azhar, a visible irritant in ties, once again slipped through the mentions, as the two countries attempted to build their relations again.

Azhar, JeM and the Afzal Guru Squad are back in the limelight again after the Pulwama attack, and India is likely to work with the U.S., the United Kingdom and others once again to put Azhar onto the ban list with details of the attack. For those in China and Pakistan who will call for more evidence, the writing, like the signature of the group, is on the wall.

source: The Hindu

Since 2016, methods to deal with the entire population of Kashmir have been bullets, pellets, crackdowns and arrests. Such a policy does not end a cult of violence or wipe out militancy